Deliverables and products

Continuous time analogues

 Analogue software

Ensemble forecast simulations with analogues

 The AnaWEGE stochastic weather generator was modified into a forecast mode to simulate large ensembles of temperature and NAO index forecasts, from 5 to 80 days ahead. The performance of this system is evaluated by:

Yiou, P. and Déandréis, C.: Stochastic Ensemble Climate Forecast with an Analogue Model, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-199, accepted, 2019.

Description of analogue ensemble forecast

The R code for simulations is available here. The archive also contains temperature data for Berlin, De Bilt, Orly, Toulouse and Madrid (from ECA&D), and a daily NAO index (from NOAA)