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Welcome to the website of the A2C2 project. A2C2 means "Atmospheric flow Analogues for Climate Change". It started on March 1st 2014 and will last for 5 years.



A2C2 is about rare and extreme events of a dynamical system such as the climate. We are studying chaotic dynamical systems, which yield a strange attractor (hence the butterfly wings in the logo that epitomize the sensitivity to initial conditions), and we aim at detecting how an alteration of the system leads to new, rare or extreme events (the so called "black swans" in economy or sociology). The general tools that we want to develop are good measures of pattern recurrence and assess when patterns have never been seen before.The tools are based on analogues of atmospheric circulation, which have been known for decades in the meteorological literature for weather forecast. We have demonstrated their potential in climate applications, especially for diagnostics of extreme events.

So, the A2C2 project is about butterflies and black swans, for climate change.